Market Analysis for The Week Ahead

The Dead Cat Bounce? - Clickbait or Nah?

Please see the announcement about the future of Discord access DISCORD PRICING ANNOUNCEMENT To reiterate, if you are a current subscriber and remain subscribed you will not be affected.

I posted a “Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit” that I think will benefit both free and certainly paid subscribers. I will continue to build this out over time with additional videos, examples, and explanations. It was updated last week with some additional content.

Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit V2

I also did the first post in a new series where I will explain in greater detail the why for some of the trade setups along with some of the how. I plan to include discussion of some that don’t work (and why) and also some of the errors I make in my own trade. These posts will ultimately be linked in the starter kit as well which you have surely already read. Trade Recap and Analysis

The week was absolutely insane with intraday volatility as can be seen within the first part of the new series above. I won’t recap it again but I will once again reiterate that I believe that this kind of volatility is here to stay in 2025. It will absolutely be the year of the day trader and the futures trader in particular. There are instances where day trading SPX and SPY can be superior (I’m actually working on a post to this effect) but it also helps to have the ability to trade futures hours even if trading leveraged ETFs on Robinhood as an alternative. We will see more and more expansion into extended hours trading in the next year or so and you will want to be familiar with the futures charts even if trading the index due to liquidity and volume overnight.

We had been prepared for the possibility of a look below and fail of the mid-December low since the weekly plan. On Thursday night we talked about the hold of the 20 week sma at Thursday’s low, and that the major structural weekly higher low (5696.51) was nowhere in sight. The 5853.01 weekly “higher low” was a bit of a “soft” higher low. It was more of a multi-day balance as opposed to a clean daily downtrend. The distinction is important. The weekly candle obviously looked quite different on Thursday night, but it looks rather bullish after Friday.

NAAIM has pulled back nicely from nearly 100. Remember, many were calling for an “oversold breadth rally” when NAAIM was at 99.24. While I believe that 64.1 is an artificially low reading and is a bit of a “data artifact” it has still come down quite nicely, leaving room for a rally.

We have definitely seen a slight improvement in breadth in spite of the fact that the dollar is screaming, and yields have been persistently elevated and sticky. This and the weekly candle have left my feed on X wildly bullish. It was easy to get overly bearish on Thursday’s triple distribution down day into the December low, and it was easy to get bullish on Friday’s triple distribution day to the upside into the top of a 4-day balance. It is perhaps best to remain mostly objective here. I will of course have objective analysis of price, but will again add some subjective color.