Market Analysis for 1/29/25
SPY QQQ
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The weekly post and video for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
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Last night’s plan talked about the critical overnight hold of the major bull gap and 0.618 retracement from the January lows on Sunday night/Monday morning. We had also spotted a pretty serious buyer yesterday in the 6012-6018 range and we see today what this buyer had in mind. From last night’s commentary:
We now have both an ETH and an RTH gap on ES to deal with just above us. Here is a visual of the ETH gap:
And the remaining island gap (bulls were able to fill in much of it today and exceeded in doing so on SPY and SPX). One could make an argument to extend this up to 6122 Friday’s low (RTH gap) and monitor for a gap fill reversal there or at Friday’s close.
Tomorrow is FOMC, Thursday is GDP, Friday is PCE, and we have major earnings the next two days. I believe it will be important to monitor how bonds and the dollar react to data but as always, we will focus on what price is telling us. As of now the bulls have the ball. This week if looking at cash hours only has been nothing but higher highs and higher lows. Caution is likely warranted if/when that changes (barring a quick FOMC or earnings trap of course).