Market Analysis and Trades for 9/25

Swing Low or No?

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 9/21

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In last night’s plan we expected a back test higher. The question is always whether or not to sell this back test. Sellers needed below 6714-6718 on ES and 24828-24839 on NQ and both indices closed in those ranges. Because yesterday’s tape felt a bit different and because of the profile characteristics left behind, it gave sellers an opportunity to defend and then prove a willingness to sell below these areas today. From last night’s plan:

After sustaining above 24828-839 on NQ and 6714-6718 on ES, the back test higher was triggered.

NQ traded just below 920-933 premarket, opened within the 880-895 range, and was immediately sold through 828-839.

ES traded 1 tick shy of 6729 and was sold at the open through 6718-6718.

In the Discord we did take a long at low of day right after I posted this on X

Note the above picture regarding the weekly LVNs. Buyers defended where they had to today. However, once again due to today’s profile characteristics, sellers have an opportunity to defend a back test higher. In tonight’s plan we will discuss weighing those possibilities vs this being the swing low.

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