Market Analysis and Trades for 9/19

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 9/14

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Yesterday’s FOMC day had done nothing but bring both QQQ 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑ to 4- and 5-day boxes respectively. Trading within yesterday’s range was likely to be extremely choppy, but the market was kind enough to gap out of it entirely.

NQ/QQQ was far more clean as it opened well above yesterday’s high and Tuesday’s high (the top of the box) whereas ES/SPX opened right at yesterday’s high. NQ held its Tuesday high almost exactly and reversed hard toward and taking out its overnight high.

Both ES and NQ left behind significant excess at their lows today which should be carried forward. Sellers will need to negate this excess and find meaningful traction below today’s low to shift tone in at least the short term. This can be carried forward as it would be meaningful in the future as well.

We did see a fairly decent seller today, but as of now I am operating under the assumption it is a long taking profit. I will continue to monitor for any need to change this assessment. It came as NQ hit the major VWAP standard deviation band that has stalled multiple rallies, so it is a natural spot to take profit.

We longed the back test of 6687-6690 just before noon and had a fun little trade into the close that I’ll be doing a video on to explain in the near future. 6635P on SPX went $1.25 to $8 and the 6630P went $0.6 to $4.5. The long part of it was a bit late in the day but worked nonetheless.

Note how a new low was made and then popped into the close (and has now found continuation in this early overnight session).

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