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After ORCL 0.00%↑ earnings, NQ sustained above 23869-23885 and ES sustained above yesterday’s cash hours high (6526.25). Therefore neither came close to any threat and proceeded to and met their major respective targets ahead of PPI (6542-6545 for ES and 23960-23980 for NQ). The soft PPI provided an additional pop but that high was never revisited. ES held 6542-6545 from above on the initial sell at open and made new high of day, but still couldn’t make it back to the premarket high. It is worth noting that the NQ open was extremely bearish even though it took quite a bit of time to play out. The open was nearly straight down and it never traded above its 5-minute OR high.
SPX has sold off quite hard off the top of this ascending trend line so a pause made some sense:
Yesterday’s high broadly held and there was a nice rally into the close. If you watched the premarket stream this morning we discussed trading true gaps and the possibility that we could come all the way down to yesterday’s high and it could still objectively be a long. It is worth noting that NQ came quite a bit lower and is one of a few clues we will need to carry forward. Additionally, on the intraday livestream in Discord we discussed the very very obvious sell program and how to spot it (at least this type of program).
We have seen numerous true gaps faded in the last month or so, but ultimately no damage has been done the following days. Will this time be different?
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