Market Analysis and Trades for 8/28

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 8/24

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NVDA 0.00%↑ earnings is out of the way and tomorrow has become quite important based on the location of the afterhours low on ES and NQ.

NQ held the major 23425-23438 weekly range, not even quite making it to yesterday’s low and closing back above today’s RTH low.

ES left a ridiculous poor daily high quite literally to the tick with the current 6502.5 RTH ATH. This can be a sign that the move higher is not complete, or it could be a sign of buyers’ exhaustion. This is a bit disappointing after the critical 6431-6435 hold, but perhaps we can forgive bulls their hesitancy ahead of NVDA earnings.

NQ still has a very good RTH excess high and still has significant damage to repair to mitigate weakness. However, it still has held where it has needed to this week and is an inside week.

DIA 0.00%↑ and IWM 0.00%↑ actually rallied and are green after hours in spite of the initially correlated sell on NVDA earnings. This is a healthy sign of rotation as describe weekly plan. We can still see ES and NQ pull back from here, as we’ll discuss below, but it is correlated selling that is a sign of an impending deeper pullback. We will be monitoring for this.

I came into today long some Dow names with some mid cap higher beta names and QQQ 0.00%↑ puts. I added MSFT 0.00%↑ calls at $503.5, and added to theQQQ 0.00%↑ puts near high of day. Notice both MSFT and AAPL 0.00%↑ snapped back quickly after the NVDA sell as they aren’t heavily correlated to NVDA. I was mostly looking for balanced positioning into the event and plan to adjust if needed.

Charting levels for all three YM, ES, and NQ has made for plenty of excellent trade opportunities this week. I may add RTY for next week, time permitting.

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