Market Analysis and Trades for 8/22

The Inception Box

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 8/17

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The planned trades for today worked out nicely. The ES short only cooperated for 7-8 handles during Asia (orange) but yielded 30+ a couple of times starting with the Europe session into cash and again during the case session (red). The top long setup (green) yielded 30+ but was a bit tricky to navigate. I’ll spend some time recapping how I chose to navigate that trade from an educational perspective. The less favored long setup worked “okay” a couple of times.

The NQ short setup paid 3 times and the long twice:

Notice in the above picture that NQ made a lower low into 150-165 while ES made a higher low at 10AM. Buyers had already show aggressive in the 75-83 range on the first push. Once NQ also tagged its key support, the response was ferocious. This is where, when and why I chose to get long ES. Buyers had their chance there to drive for yesterday’s high but were brick walled by the 6408.5-6411 range once again. Today ended up an inside day which is objectively neutral. This was definitely a huge missed opportunity for buyers, for which they were punished into the afternoon. Tomorrow is the big day with JPOW’s last Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair. The market broadly knows what to expect, but his tone will likely be important in determining whether bulls find this area as a daily higher low or sellers keep their momentum.

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