Market Analysis and Trades for 8/18
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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑, QQQ 0.00%↑ and GLD 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 8/16
The overnight action rendered today’s setup the most difficult possible. Friday’s minor weakness aside, bulls have very much been in control. The setups for the day certainly had higher ratings for the longs as compared to shorts but the overnight action triggered a short setup on both ES and NQ creating some timeframe conflict (see the starter kit). From the premarket update this morning:
The ES short which triggered was a look above and fail of 7817-7820:
The NQ short which triggered both premarket and during the RTH session was a look above and fail of the relative equal highs from 8/13-8/14 which all sat in the weekly 269-283 weekly range:
All of the action on ES was below its open and the high of the first 5-minutes. NQ fared better initially, but after the cash hours short triggered (which included a LAAF the IB high) it was pretty much game over for bulls today.
Both ES and NQ closed on a downward spike today which can often be a mistake from sellers. Both are also coming into their respective next weekly levels which become a bit of a crucial hold or risk a more meaningful pullback.
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