Market Analysis and Trades for 8/13

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 8/10

Yesterday’s spike down rendered matters rather binary into a binary event. If you’re not familiar with a spike, it is covered in the free section of the starter kit. This is about as good a setup as one can get if trying to navigate into a trade ahead of a binary event.

The overnight session provided two-way trading with sellers (aggressively at times) defending the 6410-6411.5 daily level but bulls defending the weekly 6392-6396 level. Given sellers’ inability to put in any trade below 6392, I personally strongly favored longs, and got long 6292. Note how ES made a new low of night by a single handle just ahead of a rally into the print. Best to take the super tight stops from the overnight session before the move amirite?

The initial move through the key 6431-6435 weekly level was initially rejected and we got one more trap for good measure down to the 6410-6411.5 spot that had been resistance overnight. Once buyers reclaimed and (this time) bid 6431-6435 from above it was game over for sellers and they had to cover all the way to a new all-time high.

Looking at full session, ES closed right at the top of range, but has broken out on a cash hours basis. The weekly plan discussed my upside targets for a sustain breakout. Tonight’s plan will include some potential trap spots if tomorrow at least provides the appearance of a failed breakout.

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