Market Analysis and Trades for 7/31

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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/27

An absolutely wild day today between FOMC and the META 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ earnings. We were monitoring the 4-day balance (a box) that ES had formed as of yesterday. The trades off this are straightforward. My preferred trades are always the failed breaks and I prefer to trade in alignment with broader trend. Any look below and fail (LBAF) of yesterday’s low would have worked. It could have been shallow to 6386 or a full back test of the prior consolidation range. I was using 6369-6373 for this week even though the top of the prior balance was 6374 on ES. Low of day was 6366.75, dipping only briefly below 6369. This also aligned with the top of the prior box on SPX which was posted real time on X as a spot with tight risk to manage longs against.

The upper box was reclaimed into the close and ripped directly to nearly the top on META and MSFT earnings.

The ES high is currently an ETH high and NQ has now negated its RTH excess high from yesterday, both of which are in bulls’ favor. We were looking for a pause this week after reaching the 6420s and 6450s targets from weeks ago. We got that pause (a multi-day balance) and now we can assess fresh upside targets should we ultimately see a clean upside break with continuation.

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