Market Analysis and Trades for 7/11

If you are looking to join the Discord (now separate from the newsletter) please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. Plans/levels will be posted in the Discord so the Discord option includes Substack content but a new Substack subscription does not include Discord access.

Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit

The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead

In last night’s plan we made note of the excess high on NQ QQQ 0.00%↑ which gave us reason to be a bit cautious and to consider shorts on NQ. ES, however, had two relative equal highs which I favored to be taken out. This meant that a significant divergence between ES SPY 0.00%↑ and NQ was somewhat likely. From last night’s plan regarding ES and NQ:

Note the overnight session opened and traded higher. NQ was firmly rejected in the 23060.5-23069 range and both ES and NQ remained weak for all of Asia session. NQ found its feet at the 22978-22982 range and ES at 6288.75 as theorized by recent patterns. NQ rallied into the open, opening just above 969 but was swiftly rejected back below. It drove straight through the overnight low to the 22930-22950 major target. It then saw a look below and fail of yesterday’s low, which was actually the signal to get long ES.

As from above we were looking to get long ES if 6293-6296 held from above. After holding the overnight low at roughly the 6288.75 level, ES rallied to Monday’s 6309.75 high and struggled with it both premarket and at the open. On the pullback, the cash hours low of day was 6296 as NQ was reclaiming yesterday’s low:

After the hold of 6293-6296 ES cleanly broke 6309.75, leaving single prints behind, and ultimately took out both the tricky 6315-6317.5 range and last week’s high.

We started to see some serious dispersion intraday which was noted at the open, and predictable based on NQ weakness. NQ now has two consecutive excess highs. Thus far the non-tech names were strong enough to lift ES to new highs. NQ will need to either regain in strength or the non-tech sectors will need to continue their advance or ES is likely to see a pullback in the next few days. Our guard is up and we will be prepared either way.

Paid Content Below or in the Discord