Market Analysis and Trades for 6/26
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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/21
Today was really all about NQ. It had to sustain its break above 29923-29943 or risk a “meaningful unravel” which turned out to be a bit of an understatement if anything. This is the importance of properly understanding ranges. The failed break of the range opened a complete unravel back to yesterday’s low on NQ and it came within 30 points of it.
The 923-943 level had initially held low of night and was the long setup for the day, producing a 300+ rally to the weekly 30269-30293. NQ opened right at the FOMC VWAP and sold straight down back to the major weekly 29302-29339 level.
Note what happened when the 2nd 30-minute candle of the day opened. NQ traded straight higher 400+ handles. This is something to carry forward. Meaningful changes often take place at the open of a fresh 30-minute period.
ES traded to and through yesterday’s low, before triggering a LBAF which resolved for 80+ handles before ultimately failing just above last week’s low.
In the premarket update I had pondered if perhaps this was a selling opportunity for those still working off over leverage in semis.
This appears to have been the case, and the question now is whether or not they are don.
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