Market Analysis and Trades for 6/17
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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
While Thursday night into Friday looked pretty bearish, and the close on Friday was rather week, it is important to zoom out to the big picture. While we had been monitoring 5987.5 on ESM2025 as the major 3-week breakout, due to contract decay into this week’s roll, it was important to keep an eye on SPX as well. The SPX 3-week breakout level was 5968.61. While ES closed below 5987.5 on Friday, SPX held off 5968.61 (5963.21 low of day):
Today turned out to be the “just a back test brah” scenario:
Additionally, the Thursday night low had held a major yearly spot, and even below there had room for another 80 handles before sellers would have any meaningful control”
Because of this, shorts continue to be treated as “rentals” to me. They are scalps/day trades maybe held into an overnight session if trading futures. Until sellers establish and maintain downside traction (development of value lower) the dip will be bought.
That said, due to contract roll ES has now tested an absolutely massive upside area. Interestingly, we sat at this area for both the December and January FOMC. Above here opens a clean shot at all time highs. Rejecting this area means at minimum further balance in this range.
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