Market Analysis and Trades for 6/16
If you are looking to join the Discord (now separate from the newsletter) please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. Plans/levels will be posted in the Discord so the Discord option includes Substack content but a new Substack subscription does not include Discord access.
Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
Thursday and Friday of last week were pretty wild. We had hit the 6062.25-6066.25 spot from the weekly plan on Wednesday and sold off similar to how the analogous NQ spot had the week before. The selling continued Wednesday night, but held the key 5987.5. Price rallied a bit into the Thursday open and then an absolutely panicked bid came in. These seemed incredibly fishy, and the action was similar to the exit (from a big long) we had seen in December. This, combined with reaching supply we had planned to short anyway had me buying puts near high of day on top of the VIX calls and UVIX we held.
Thursday ended up closing right back up at high of day on a mini-spike. The plan for Friday was objective with respect to price, but I expressed my intent to be primarily fishing for shorts on pops looking for a liquidation.
This didn’t take long as we sold 125 handles into the overnight low, holding the critical 5927-5932 range. Given the entire week had established value above 6000, there was no real surprise that price reverted right back to last week’s VPOC during the cash session on Friday. From there it sold off 60 handles into the close.
The Middle East certainly hasn’t calmed down over the weekend so we could open anywhere. In the big picture sellers are still quite far from causing any technical damage. If we continue to sell from here, the nature and character of the sell will determine when and where I look to get long vs short.
Paid Content Below or in the Discord