Market Analysis and Trades for 5/15
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The weekly post and video for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
Today was all about one spot, the B-period single prints from Tuesday between 5890.25-5896.75. Taking longs here was really the only trade that interested me. I was (and am) already short 5925.5 from yesterday and taking longs while holding that short is a perfect opportunity to offset some risk and “hedge the edge.” I mentioned in last night’s plan that buyers were in full control and that I was short 5925.5 anyway. I had taken profit and took more today as there can be no conviction short while bulls remain in control. I’ve already taken more than 60% of the short position off such that any stop out ensures the trade is green overall as is my style. Today I took two longs (and should have taken three) with this long setup against the 5890.25-5896.75 range. Most traders feel like they have to either be “bull” or “bear” or even just trade one side of the tape. I trade both sides of the tape, and am happy to do so at the same time (different vehicles or different accounts). Notice that NQ remained well above 21240s all night and all day giving even more long bias for ES. From last night’s plan:
This trade worked perfectly overnight, and then gave an opportunity for a look below and fail (LBAF) of the overnight low and IB low during cash hours (a perfect trap setup). From the premarket update:
I probably wouldn’t (at least plan to) brave a 4th attempt at this trade unless today’s low was first swept followed by a reclaim.
NQ remains relatively strong as we continue to see dispersion into OPEX Friday. YM and RTY remain relatively weak, and ES looks like it is trying to balance (it technically has not yet since a prior day low has not been taken).
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