Market Analysis and Trades for 5/14
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The weekly post and video for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
Today opened on yet another true gap up (above the prior day’s cash hours high), back tested and held yesterday’s spike (see the starter kit) and then we saw quite a chase higher. Chasing price (whether lower via shorts or higher via longs) is generally not a good look. This took price to our next major high time frame spot of 5917-5935. We had 9 straight days of trend to the upside, followed by (technically overlapping with) 7 days of balance, and now 2 days of upside trend. The market is objectively still trending higher and doesn’t find balance until at least a prior day low is taken out. That said this to me is a fairly natural area to de-risk some longs either via hedges or raising cash. The “chasing” is more of a caution to me than anything, but again, the market is actively trending until a prior day’s low is taken out and even after it is not in a downtrend. Back when we were in the 7-day range we talked about the fact that the break from that range would determine the immediate trend. That range broke to the upside. Sellers would not only need to take out a prior day low, they would then need to break some kind of multi-day range to the downside to take any kind of short term control.
Full disclosure, this was the area where I said back in March I would be looking to sell the rip.
A lot has changed since then, but I took a shot and am short 5925.5. As always, I have already taken enough profit to offset a stop out and I know what needs to happen for trend to change. You do as well given the above. I’m not even particularly bearish (certainly not on price) given Trumps seeming capitulation on fiscal cuts and tariffs. But I saw some things I wanted to see to take a shot at it, and I said that I would.
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