Market Analysis and Trades for 4/16
Huge Breakout or Huge Failed Breakout?
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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 4/12
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Both ES and NQ once again opened on a true gap up, held their respective spike bases from yesterday and made yet another trend day run. ES SPY SPX QQQ and NDX all made new all-time highs. NQ hasn’t quite yet but was quite close at today’s high.
NQ held the weekly 934-946 overnight and held the 990 spike base from yesterday during the cash session:
I posted on X and will reiterate here. I would strongly discourage attempting to fade a sustained break to new highs like this with markets in price discovery. The only potentially bearish setup from here would be NQ making a cash hours ATH along with ES and then failing spectacularly back in range. VIX expiration was today and monthly options expiration is Friday and this often tends to be a pivotal juncture, but if the break sustains, I personally won’t be looking for much in the way of shorts until given a damn good reason.
That said, there were some early signs today that we might see a change in character after OPEX, which I’ll discuss in tonight’s plan.
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