Market Analysis and Trades for 3/4
As Binary as it Gets
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The weekly post and for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
Today on ES and NQ was all about the “failed escape” scenario from the weekly plan. It took its time to play out, but it ultimately played out in spectacular fashion. We had identified the Friday move as a bit of “fake news.”
NQ didn’t make it nearly as ES, failing at our 21095-21113 spot and immediately getting trapped back below 20985-21013.25. Below here I favored shorts on both ES and NQ with longs to be considered intraday scalps:
We can see that the loss of and trapping below 20985-2013.25 led to 600+ handles to the downside to the 200 sma (non-back adjusted charts for me as always) and the election gap fill.
ES certainly looked stronger overnight and premarket, but all it did was complete its rotation to the 5990s and trigger its own “failed escape.”
We can see the loss of and trapping below 5965.75-5971 triggered the ultimate loss of 5932.5-5936 and we got the liquidation:
As mentioned above NQ tagged its 200sma and election gap fill which is a massive spot. Additionally, ES has not yet taken out January’s cash hours low (5813). This is one of those spots that could put in a major low, but if it doesn’t hold could just be the beginning of a major selloff.
Tomorrow would be a good time for bulls to wake up a bit.
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