Market Analysis and Trades for 3/27
Crash Risk Just Doubled - No paywall tonight.
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be watched here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 3/15
I did a public livestream on 3/4 discussing a bit about volume profile, a bit about trading in general, and answered a few questions. The replay can be seen here: March 4th Livestream
I launched a new service offering that can be seen here on X: Doggy Style Daily Degeneracy
Paid Content Below or in the Discord
I’m reposting the weekly levels here since there is no paywall for tomorrow and some will be important and referenced below. Feel free to grab the PharmD_KS indicator script for TradingView as it allows for a simple copy paste of the weekly levels into that section and the daily levels into the daily section. It will save you a ton of time. You will need real time data on TradingView to optimize the use of the indicator, which costs around $9/month I believe. Otherwise, there is a delay. The indicator script includes a real-time converter so one can convert to SPY/SPX/US500/QQQ/NDX etc.
ES Levels/Ranges:
6869-6873
6853-6858
6833-6837
6818-6822*
6803.5-6808.5*
6783-6787
6760-6764*
6740-6746
6710-6716
6688-6692
6669-6674
6653-6657
6618-6622* Monitor for LAAF/Failed reclaim
6587-6591*
6563
6539-6543*
6525
6513-6519* monitor for LBAF
6492-6496
6465-6468
6451-6454* monitor for LBAF
6435-6438*
6408-6414
6375-6387*
6353-6357*
6346-6349*
6311-6319*
Will update if lower is needed
NQ Levels/Ranges:
25516-25538* monitor for LAAF
25440-25469* monitor for LAAF
25369-25388*
25282-25292
25210-25218 monitor for LAAF
25090-25115.5*
24928-24948* monitor for LAAF/Failed reclaim
24869
24769-24796*
24691-24709 monitor for LAAF
24614-24642
24523-24543* monitor for LAAF
24357-24380
24222-24240*
24048-24069
23927.25* Nov low monitor for LBAF
23885-23900*
23804-23822*
23733-23752*
23691-23698*
23631-23657
23581
23548-23556
23425-23438
23369-23388*
23318 monitor for LBAF
23269-23290* monitor for LBAF
23146-23162
23085-23096*
23025-23045 monitor for LBAF
22945-22969*
22833-22841
22762-22771* monitor for LBAF
22728-22745
Will add lower if needed
Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Make sure you have added the levels from the weekly plan to your chart
Grab the PharmD_KS indicator linked in the weekly plan or in the dedicated discord room if you haven’t.
Mark each day’s RTH high and low on your own chart each day. I generally won’t include in the levels
ES levels to add/keep/change for the daily levels section
6631-6634.5
6601-6605
6573-6580
6548.5-6551.5
NQ Levels to add/keep/change for the daily levels section
24485-24494
24427
24308-24318
24134-24160
24018-24030
COMMENTARY
After the weekly 6618-6622 and 24222-24240 levels were heavily offered today at open, we got a downside break of the internal range within our 5 (now 6) day balance (range is now 6520.25-6704.275 on ES and 23775-24691.5 on NQ) leading to a test of the multi-day AND multi-month balance low. Arguably both ES and NQ closed below the multi-month balance, so this could certainly be a late month break to the downside. Regardless, we still need a sustained downside break with continuation to have clarity. Today saw a downward spike into the close right into the bottom of the multi-day/multi-month balance which is normally a recipe for sellers to get carted out tomorrow. However, we got yet another Trump tweet after hours, so this punishment has been doled out (Scotty B is an avid follower of mine on X and on my “only calves” site so he knew the importance of this area). This is quite possibly the worst thing that could have happened for bulls and I’m quite serious when I say it doubles our crash risk from here.
Liquidations have significant impact on the market. Liquidations of longs strengthen the market, whereas liquidations of shorts (what we just saw) weaken the market. Inventory was getting stretched short into the close, which is part of why I often fade late day spike downs. With the afterhours move this has been corrected, and anyone that chased the long was instantly bagged.
Today was a multi-distribution trend day down so buyers have a ton of work to do to negate any weakness and trap any sellers. Again, any late sellers were squeezed out on the news so there are no shorts left to potentially panic cover until much higher.
ES:
I would argue that 6573-6580 is the most important level for tomorrow on ES. Bulls certainly aren’t in the clear just yet above there, but it would be a first major reclaim. We had an extremely large set of single prints there (see the starter kit or highlights on X for an article on single prints) that run 73-80 and that sits just below the lower edge of this week’s primary distribution. Any rally which cannot firmly reclaim this range (caution a failed reclaim/LAAF) is simply bearish consolidation. The base of today’s spike was 6530 which I chose not to use in the daily levels but it should be marked on your own chart. It sits close enough to the November ETH low at 6525 and I tend to think the levels around it are more important.
Trading Lower:
There is clarity in weakness below 6548.5-6551.5 which was another set of single prints and marks the upper edge of frankly a relatively ill-formed lower distribution for the day. This level sits just above the weekly 6539-6543 level which includes the November RTH low. That weekly level would naturally be an important technical reclaim but I would remain cautious until 48.5-51.5 flips to firm support. Given the “janky” structure between the weekly 6513-6519 level and 6548.5-6551.5, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation between those areas before a decisive break one way or another.
Traction below today’s RTH low (and perhaps more importantly the weekly 6513-6519 and bottom of the yearly 6513-6600 level) implies acceptance of the spike and speaks for itself- we go lower. We still have Sunday’s overnight range to trade, but a loss of Novembers RTH and ETH lows along with the yearly level must be assumed to be a major breakdown until proven otherwise. As per the weekly plan and the last few daily plans, we can and should still remain mindful of the possibility of a failed breakdown, but buyers would still have a tremendous amount of work to do. You have my immediate and longer-term downside targets on a sustained downside break from the weekly plan.
Trading Higher:
If buyers are able to sustain bids above 6548.5-6551.5 then a test of 6573-6580 is reasonable to expect, mindful of the 6563 weekly level which has some supply just above it in the 67-69 range (can make it a red rectangle on your chart). Again, and failure to reclaim 6573-6580 including a failed reclaim/LAAF is a short broadly targeting 48.5-51.5 and today’s low if 48.5-51.5 doesn’t hold.
The weekly 6587-6591 level sits in a high volume node from today which can act as supply and potentially trigger a failed reclaim of 6573-6580, but truly holding above 6580 I would expect to see closer to 6601-6605 which would take out today’s after-hours high. It is not until above there that today’s sellers get a bit uncomfortable, as it opens a move back up to the critical 6618-6622 weekly level and today’s high.
NQ:
NQ is nearly identical to ES so I won’t fully reiterate. I will add that there were single prints running 23901-23933 sitting right on top of our weekly 23885-23900 level. I like the use of 885-900 for tomorrow and we can just monitor for a LAAF/failed reclaim. The weekly 927.25 level (November’s RTH low) sits within those single prints).
I’ve added 24018-24030 which is a smaller set of single prints from today which rejected the afterhours move. This spot sits just below the weekly 24048-24069 level so I perhaps could have left 018-030 off and simply said monitor for a LAAF of the afterhours high. Regardless, there is no strength to be had on NQ below 24018-24030 and frankly 24134-24160.
Trading Lower:
There is clarity in weakness below 23885-23900 which opens a test of today’s spike base which sits atop our weekly 23804-23822 (23820.25) and low (23775). It wouldn’t surprise me to see NQ fill out volume between 23733-23752 (or 804-822) and 23885-23900 (maybe up to 933) before making a decisive move. Regardless, taking out today’s low and 733-752 with continuation speaks for itself. We would be well below the November RTH low and it is a breakdown. There will be pops but it would be a high time frame short with continuation lower until further notice.
Trading Higher:
We’ll need to monitor for a LAAF of 885-900 given the single prints (along with November’s RTH low) sitting just above. Holding above 885-900 absent a failure in the singles can set NQ on a bit of a structure repair mission, possibly back up to 24018-24030 which stopped the afterhours rally. I considered adding 23969 as a daily level which we’ve used a number of times in the last year but you should have 23971.25 the 3/20 low marked on your chart anyway for now.
Again, any kind of failure from bulls to reclaim 24018-24030 and the weekly 048-069 level will be met with aggressive pounding of the sell button by yours truly. If bulls can manage to reclaim 048-069 then 134-160 can come into play. Sellers can still defend here but would need to drive price back below at least 048-069 (really 018-030) to reassert control. It is not until 24134-24160 becomes firm support that sellers will be under significant pressure which could lead to a test of today’s high in the weekly 222-240 range.
TRADES:
Obviously, trades can be implied from the above (such as reclaim longs or breakdown shorts- both of which I hate), so I won’t list them all, but my favorite are the following:
ES:
Short any failure from buyers to reclaim 6548.5-6551.5. We’ll need to be mindful of the weekly 39-43 level but I would expect a retest of at least 6530 if not today’s low.
Aggressively short any failure from buyers to reclaim 6573-6580, including a look above and fail (LAAF).
I’m willing to long any failure from sellers to get through today’s low and the 6513-6519 area. This is extremely tricky because sellers are in full control of both short and intermediate timeframes. However, this is 6-month range low AND 6-day range low so I must remain open to it. I would just keep a tight leash on it based on the above key areas. This is where applying what you’ve learned about volume profile and session trends from my writings or in discord becomes critical. Mind your session trend and profile. For me to take a long, even though this is range low, I need to have the session trend and profile supporting me.
NQ:
Short any failure from buyers to reclaim 23885-23900 including a LAAF that fails in the 901-933 single prints. Target 804-822 then today’s low and the weekly 733-752.
Aggressively short any kind of failure to reclaim 24018-24030 or 24048-24069. If it gets close, I tend to want to see the afterhours wick at least swept.
I am less willing to randomly take a long near today’s low compared to ES, but if following session trend and profile and sellers can’t get through today’s spike base (804-822) and low I can understand doing so. For me I would probably look to ES.