Market Analysis and Trades for 2/20
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be watched here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 2/15
After yesterday’s cover rally and P-breakdown it became reasonably likely that today would take out yesterday’s low. The premarket low on ES was nearly identical to yesterday’s cash hours low so it became likely that those lows would at least be swept. That long setup was shared premarket (included in substack chat each morning):
ES didn’t quite make it to the 6898-6902 target and it was appropriate to take profit early because NQ hit its own key weekly level that would be a short:
This same NQ spot was a short later on as a LAAF the IB high as well. The first arrow aligned with ES making high of day. Regardless of which instrument you are trading it is very helpful to monitor both:
20 minutes after open while many of us were long and taking profit at 86-88 (and later 94), I suggested we could still make low of day in spite of the rally as it read like a broadening formation was likely to develop:
Sure enough the afternoon session made new low of day. Since the morning, we were looking for this to likely revert right back up perhaps as a LBAF the IB low:
ES ended up reverting all the way back to 81 into the close off the 6848 low of day.
We now have a 4-day balance with a big OPEX, potential Supreme Court ruling, and a fair amount of data tomorrow.
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