Market Analysis and Trades for 2/19
SPY QQQ and ACHR updates
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The weekly post and for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
We got the move on ACHR 0.00%↑ we were looking for as it gapped up and tagged the major 11.39-11.53 range where we took some profit. It is a very strong spot, and it isn’t too much of a surprise it has faded from there. I’ll have an update tonight but the original post with the full levels can be seen HERE: ACHR Upside Targets and Dip Buy Areas
My personal focus for today was on QQQ 0.00%↑ NQ as SPY 0.00%↑ ES has been trading in pretty tight ranges so I haven’t been particularly interested. I would rather scalp 20-30 handles on NQ in a few minutes then sit all day trying to get 10 on ES personally.
Whether you just had the plan or are in the Discord as well the levels on NQ today were excellent. After trading much of the Sunday night and Monday futures only session above the key 22211-244 range, strong selling came in just before the open and stuffed it right back below. While every trade setup worked today, to me the best two trades were the look below and fail of the IB low, and the trade off the 22103 hold. If you have read the starter kit you are aware of how we trade around the IB especially when it aligns with market structure and supply and demand at price. From the plan:
The IB low ended up at 22130.25 just below the 140-143 spot. NQ looked below and failed both at the same time, stalled at 22171, back tested and held the IB low from above and then proceeded up to the 211 spot. From 10:24. Right at 10:31 the IB low was swept and the book immediately flipped bid.
The 22103 spot was tested later in the day after sellers mounted a strong defense of 22211. Fortunately, I was back at the desk to call this out live at 2:21 EST
While sellers were reasonably strong on pops today all day, we had been expecting bulls to be responsive on dips given the level of supportive flows and broad bullish structure. There were certainly shorts to be had today, but I was more interested in longs for this reason.
Tomorrow is volatility product expiration, and we can sometimes see a change in character as we move past it into Friday’s options expirations. It is not something that should be assumed, but it is to be monitored.