Market Analysis and Trades for 2/13
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be watched here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 2/8
Wild day today as NQ and ES floated up to range high all night which had me skeptical. Being long into range high is almost never correct. I was skeptical of this range breaking ahead of CPI. That looked very right at open, and then the wave of selling after the IB made it very wrong as we broke range to the downside. Pretty crazy after testing range high overnight.
On a cash hours basis the day trade short setup triggered a weekly bearish scenario and the rest was history:
369-388 was rejected at open, the IB low was set at 25169-25179 (169.75)
On a weekly basis a rejection up there which then triggered a loss of 25169-25179 would have sellers back in firm control. The move was violent after 169-179 was lost
Today saw a spike down into the close (see the starter kit). We have a b-shaped profile from today quite a bit below established value for the week. Here’s how we’ll play it:
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