Market Analysis and Trades for 12/30
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be watched here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 12/28
For all the talk about how terrible holiday trading would be this week, pretty much every setup we had triggered and worked. This started as a continuation from Friday as a big picture NQ trade from more than a month ago (and reiterated each week since) finally played out. Today saw downside continuation of that. From the week of 11/30 plan:
We can see the sweep on Friday, and the overnight session last nigh found follow through:
For ES the “minor trade” shorting a Look above and fail of 6983.25 put in the high of night.
This got us a true gap down (opening below the prior day’s low). The open saw an inventory correction higher but harshly rejected Friday’s low which was one of the major trades for today. This trade obviously worked both overnight and during the cash session. If anything, it was easier to take during cash because of the rules of trading true gap downs:
I still think this week is setting the stage for what is to come very early in 2026, and it is not going to be a small move.
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