If you are looking to join the Discord (now separate from the newsletter) please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. Plans/levels will be posted in the Discord so the Discord option includes Substack content but a new Substack subscription does not include Discord access.
Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 11/2
Today offered action on both sides of the tape. After closing at last week’s lower edge, futures gapped up and trended all the way up toward the key 6900-6902.5 spot.
This triggered the short on a look above and fail of 6995.5 during Asia which resolved for 20+ handles to the overnight low (6873.25). Sellers were not able to get to the 5pm Friday close and this triggered a cover rally back up to 6900-6902.5. The spot was well-offered until the AMZN/Open AI news which drive price through Friday’s high into the open and ES and NQ opened on a “True gap.”
There was no lack of clarity at the open. Friday’s seller was indeed not done. I had the suspicion a few minutes before open but it was made quite clear straight away and triggered the LAAF of Friday’s high + 6895.5
As was written in the commentary, we can remain short down toward last week’s lower edge but prepared to flip long. Levels don’t matter a ton when a seller of that size is in the mix. The one spot I was willing to take a shot today was 6850-6852, especially as pace had slowed just a bit in the 66-69 range before a final exhaustive push into the low. This demand produced a LBAF of the IB low.
Overall, it was a pretty weak day for the first of the month, but buyers protected last week’s low on both ES and NQ and the gap from Friday 10/24 remains unfilled. Sellers accomplished nothing (yet) and buyers defended where they had to. I would consider today to have been neutral.
Paid Content Below or in the Discord
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.