Market Analysis and Trades for 11/11
One Last Potential Bearish Sequence
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The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Market Analysis for the Week of 11/2
After Friday’s hold of the contract to date value area low (a horrible location to be short), weekend news of a potential end of the government shutdown led to a large Sunday night gap and go which held the Thursday night (ahead of Friday) overnight high to the tick. All sellers from Friday were fully trapped, with sellers from the rest of last week immediately under pressure:
New initiative sellers were unable/unwilling to defend any of the key technical areas overnight, effectively all supply/resistance were cleared ahead of the open on what was nearly a 1% true gap up (above the prior day’s high).
The opening drive was higher, and while there was a delayed inventory correction (pullback) all it did was come back to the lower edge of last week’s primary distribution. This allowed for the completion of a rotation to the 6860s. From the weekend plan and the Discord (premarket update and real time during the sell):
Sellers could have defended overnight, but they didn’t. They had buyers from the open in huge trouble and could have pressed through 6797-6800 and 6786-6790 but couldn’t or wouldn’t.
With some technical sequences/rotations complete, bulls can afford a pause here if there is to be a pullback overnight or tomorrow. Sellers had the ball last week, buyers now have it until sellers crack some key levels. There is effectively one potential bearish sequence left for sellers to trigger if they care to show up tomorrow. Aside from that . . . the path is higher.
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