Is 4198 Back in Play on ES SPX SPY?

Tomorrow may decide it.

A brief recap of today because we need to get into discussion about tomorrow. Last night’s post discussed the return of our big seller (who I’ve nicknamed “Druck”) and the setup for an outside/engulfing day. We were on watch for the look above and fail of yesterday’s highs (4407.75) into the ES 4411-16 range in the morning to provide the setup for the bearish engulfing day. The overnight high was 4413, and low of day 4357.57 for the bearish engulfing day.

How price acts tomorrow will be our critical next clue in determining how the rest of the year and possibly into 2024 will play out. This entire move higher (which was implied when 4198 was reclaimed and bid) was about testing ES 4385 and 4407. There was clearly no interest above 4407 this week. We’ll now discuss the next “Act” in the play we are currently watching and how we will interpret price action.