If You're on the Fence

First 2 months recap

This substack was soft launched on October 1st so we are coming up on just 2 full months so there’s an opportunity here to recap how it has gone. While it may come off as a merciless flex (it kind of is😂), it is meant to give you an idea of what I do and how I manage trading for myself and my members.

We will add longs as we day trade short into swing lows, and we will sell longs and consider shorts as we day trade the index long into swing highs. This preserves our monetary AND emotional capital at these often difficult to manage inflection points that usually cost people a lot of money.

I will never have 100k followers on twitter because I don’t call out doomsday or absurdly bullish scenarios, but I will also NEVER blindly buy puts in a bullish trend and cost my followers enormous amounts of money. The reverse is true as well (blindly buying calls in a bearish trend).

So if you want to learn my process over time and become a self sustaining investor and trader, while at the same time preserving and growing capital in a safe and effective manner, then join us. If you are looking for nothing but blind alerts on 10 trades per day, then truly one of the discords that charges 10x more to get it wrong all day might be for you.

WHERE WE CAME FROM

On October 6th in substack chat we went swing long over 4277 into my vacation. Our target was 4419-24 then 4435-4440 where I said I would aggressively trim/close longs. The RTH high ended up at 4423.25 and the ETH high hit 4430.5. From there we flipped to a bearish bias targeting at least a proper cleanup of the early October lows of 4235.5. On the way down we collected 40-50 ($4-$5 on SPY) points in single trades all but one day (30). Into the week of 10/23 our last downside target for the week was 4122 (see private video post from 10/22). The October low was 4122.25.

On the way into 4122 we started adding long exposure to individual names at 4176 ES while continuing to short the index. See last post entitled “If You’re on the Fence” seen HERE

Into the week of 10/30, I expected the treasury issuance and FOMC to be dovish and bullish. It indeed was. I stated in the discord that a reclaim of 4198 opened a retest of the YTD highs and we now find ourselves here. We have been long biased that entire time.

Today it was time to aggressively take profits on the long positions we had initiated since 4176, and we did so at high of day on the index and many of the names that were specifically called out.

ES 4598.25 was a major key level into today (4597 HOD) and I called out live that buyers looked tired and that it could be top. The index immediately nuked after I said that. While it may not be the top (discussed in tonight’s post), in order to protect our profits on longs I strenuously reiterated aggressively taking profits and that I would not be longing the index today (with a bit of joking mixed in).

From here where do we go? Was that a major swing high? How will we know and how might we trade either scenario? I’ll discuss this with tonight’s post and in the Discord. Join us if you’re interested.