FREE Week of 11/5 Levels with Special Guest Appearance by NQ

Reminder the daily plans will have levels in between and weekly levels may be slightly modified each day depending on context and prior day’s price action.

A quick recap of where we came from and how we got to where we are today as it is important to what comes next.

The sell off really started in August after the Treasury Refunding Announcement (TRA) where Janet Yellen finally began to issue some duration debt instead of so heavily issuing bills. This caused a very large move in long term yields and equities came under significant pressure. We tried to find a bottom in early October at a critical area, but we were not satisfied with those low as they were quite “poor” in nature. That said, we knew to flip long anyway, and we swung long from 4270s, targeting 4419-24 where we were looking for a lower weekly high. We flipped to a short bias and were short until we cleaned up those lows. Into the week of 10/22 we knew that if we lost 4198 it opened 4122 if 4176.25 was offered from below. This played out exactly and that Friday and week’s low was 4122.25. Into last week we planned to be bearish under 4176.25 but aware that 4142.5-47 was a key pivot into Monday. Once we gapped over that range (4143.5 low of night) and never traded back below, we suspected sellers were in trouble. We got some fantastic two-way trading on Monday and Tuesday but once we closed over 4198, we knew that significant upside had been unlocked (potentially to YTD highs). The big macro events of the week were BOJ, TRA, and FOMC. I laid out the scenarios that may occur and specifically highlighted the possibility that BOJ might be “hawkish” by widening their target JGB yield tolerance, but that Yellen may issue heavy on bills (bullish equities) and JPOW may come in dovish. Wednesday was the big day, and sure enough the TRA was heavy on bills providing some much-needed relief to longer term yields and we opened on a large gap up that held and continued. The volatility with FOMC was really quite minimal as the TRA was really the big catalyst for the week. The rest was history and we had two more gap ups that held and brought us to THE key inflection point that will determine where we go next.

Full (exhaustive) Levels for the Week with detail - (See either my free stack or the discord for explanation of abbreviations)

4494-97 - June VAH and top of balance, July VAH, ES Sept contract (no longer trades of course but was critical) major LVN from Sept, bottom of current contract Sept Distribution.

4462.25 - Prior “Hide the kids below” level from Sept FOMC. 9/3 week VAL, 9/19 LOD

4419-24 - Current lower weekly high, June VPOC, rough 4368.5-4494 balance halfback (midpoint), rough July RTH lows, Aug VAL, Sept LVN, Oct highs. Weekly to OFU and monthly to balance above.

4413- Will only be used potentially for daily plans. 10/8 and 10/15 week VAH, top of 9/17 week lower distribution

4407 - Prior YTD developing VAH (dVAH). Last line defense of evening star from 10/16-10/18 (10/17 open).

4398 - Oct VAH, right side of 10/16-10/18 evening star

4384.5 - Current YTD dVAH

4352.5 (levels between this and 4398 will be on daily plans). Weekly LVN below including singles from NFP.

4337.5 - Bottom of NFP singles, roughly 11/2 HOD

4322.5-24 - Minor weekly LVN, key level from 11/2 protects 5 min morning star.

4308.5-14 - Weekly and daily (11/2) LVN, 9/24 week and 10/1 week VAL, 10/30 week VAH. This will provide the first sign of strength/weakness for the week if/when tested.

4297.5 - Prior minor balance high that led to 10/8 week’s rally

4283.75 - 10/22 week VAH, 10/15 week LVN

4254.5 - 10/2 week VAL and roughly early Oct balance low, 10/30 week LVN and singles below from 11/1

4247.5 Bottom of singles from above

NQ Levels for the Week

15719.5

15520

15301

15150

14925 (Key inflection for the week)

14724.5

14677

14559

14491

14411