Free Post/Recap of the Week

Too Technical not to Share

Be sure that you have read the free series I’ve started introducing Volume/Market Profile. I will continue to add archives of free content as it will be easier to find than searching for old Substack posts. You can find it halfway down the page at the following link PharmD Capital

The subtitle for the SPY 0.00%↑ plan for last week was “Someone Was Very Wrong Last Week.” It didn’t take us too long to find out who that was. We were expecting a pullback to start the week (see full post below as well)

We indeed pulled back 50+ handles from last week’s close on Monday. However, we knew this would not be bearish unless we were seeing lower highs and lower lows below 5264 with 5270.25 as ultimately being the critical level.

We were in fact looking to get long on holds and look below and fails of 5270.25.

While we traded below 5264 on Monday, the dip was quickly snapped back thru 64 and 70 (never a hint of lower lows and lower highs below it) for a long all the way back over 5300. Tuesday offered an even better swing setup. The overnight session was again bearish, but held 5264 (5262 low), reclaimed 5270, and then 5269.5 was the cash session low. This long resolved for 40 handles in a straight line and ended up netting 114 if taking it as a swing.

Once bids were sustained above 5307 we knew to buy dips to all-time highs.

Notice how we traded through 5307 Sunday night (barely) but didn’t bid it from above until Wednesday premarket and at Wednesday’s low (5306.5 cash hours low). This was a second chance entry at a swing long, and an opportunity to add to swing longs from the look below and fail of 5270. After the 5307 hold Wednesday was a massive trend day up with only 1 red 30-minute candle (which was still OTFU lol) to 5367 high of day. This was a new RTH ATH which was the primary target for this trade. Nearly 20 additional handles were realized but the easy money had been collected by 5367 as the action was very choppy Thursday and Friday.

See the chart below and feel free to compare vs the full weekly plan (below) from the week

FROM 6/2 WEEK BELOW THE PAYWALL

Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels on high time frames

Complete Levels/Ranges:

5446

5434

5425

5417

5400

5383

5368.25 ATH (ETH)

5358.25 5/23 RTH HOD/ATH

5349 (top of 5305.75-49 box)

5331.25-33.75 Last week’s RTH high

5323.5

5307 (5305.75-5307.75 bottom of 5305.75-49 box)

5296.75 last week’s close, horizontal and recent downtrend resistance

5278

5270.25 Friday’s IB high and spike base (can continue to use our long term 72.5 level or the 70-74 range box bottom)

5264 (63-64)

5253

5240 (5235-40)

5218

5205.5 Last week’s low

5186.75

5179.75

5173

5163

5153

COMMENTARY:

In theory this week should at least initially be rather straightforward. Either Friday’s late move is accepted, or it is rejected. We closed Friday Just below downtrend resistance, the prior internal 5305-49 box bottom, 2 prior weekly VWAPs, horizontal resistance, and within a bit of an LVN for May. A move like that weakens then market and gives participants a chance to sell at a perceived premium relative to last week’s action. There is a decent chance that we pull back to start the week because of this. If we do pull back, then the only question is if 70 holds a back test. The entire 70s range is loaded with technical spots. We have the Friday spike base at 70.25, the bottom of the broader box we had been using (71-74.25 was the bottom), and a weekly and monthly LVN around 77/78. I would plan to buy a dip that holds 70, and I would plan to get long a look below and fail of 70 (64 the likely candidate which was weekly VPOC if viewing all hours).

If we simply rip higher through 5307 (and the move is sustained), then we simply plan to buy dips to all-time highs.

If 70 is lost and we begin to see lower highs and lower lows below 64 then things start to look tenuous and last week’s low could be in play. There are certainly levels before that, but a rejection of Friday’s spike to me suggests that the development of value at lower prices is incomplete or at least a deeper retest is needed.

Because this 70 “pivot” is so clean I don’t feel the need to do much guessing. We did see breadth begin to improve late in the week and Friday felt a bit like a capitulation low so I would put that in favor of bulls. There was, however, an unusual large number of massive trades on individual names that took place after the move. It is possible that this was some of the opportunistic selling mentioned above, or it is possible that participants are choosing to buy high of day Friday for a trip to the moon this week. Again, we should know quickly. I believe it is most appropriate to plan to be long until proven otherwise.

One last thing, which may continue to have my attention in the weeks to come: In the week of 5/12 plan I mentioned that we may soon need to monitor for negative market reactions to bad economic news. For 2 years weak economic news has been met with a bullish response as it was suggestive of a potential softening fed position. Friday’s response to the horrifying PMI was quite the opposite (at least initially). From the week of 5/12 plan: