3/15 Recap

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑

I do this in part to get myself ready for the next post and keep fresh, but there is a decent amount to learn from them if you missed the day in the discord.

Reminder that the trial offer will be turned off as I head to vacation. There’s no reason to have a trial if I’m not as active.

Thursday, like Wednesday, had seen yet another late day massive rally that had many people swinging calls overnight. In last nights free section I had included the following commentary regarding Wednesday:

The same applied to Thursday’s rally into the close. This was simply our big seller covering his day trade position into those that were shorting in the hole. Once he pulled his offers and became a buyer, the short term participants (us) recognized it pretty quickly and took advantage. It was just a trade.

I’ve included the full commentary from last night which was relatively limited given we had OPEX today, but it performed quite well:

The overnight low during Asia and early Europe was 5210.00 exactly and it led to a 20 handle long into the late European session. Unfortunately for bulls, it did nothing but produce the look above and fail of 22-26 in the area we were watching, 5228.75-34.75. You can see that once price was trapped below 5222 it was indeed a juicy short.

The selloff was so aggressive and quick that we opened well below 5205 which was the area that would imply a 5196.25 and 5171.25 test (our 5168-72 range we’ve been watching. 5172.75 had printed by 35 minutes into the session and effectively the entire move had occurred. We did get an extra few handles later in the day, but this proved only to be a long setup (which we took).

In the morning I woke up and saw the absorption at 5230-31 and got short at 28.75. The safer play was to wait until price failed 5222 from below.

The overnight traders were just trimming on the way down and mostly covered into the test of 72 this morning (72.75 low at 10:05). From there we waited for the IB (first 60 minutes) range to be established and planned out the next trades.

The look above and fail of the IB produced the sell to new low of day where we were lurking for a long for more than an hour (noon EST as discord is EST-3). The trade was to let sellers get out of line and take price to new lows below intraday value right into our 68-72 spot:

There had been a lot of buying just above low of day which delayed our trade and made it a bit more of a grinding trade than a snap back like the prior two days but it worked nonetheless. Right as the 30 minute period flipped at 1pm EST the buy impulse kicked in as expected and we took 5169 long “for the memes".”

From there we simply trimmed our positions on the way up until the final trim at 5190 where we had the choice to be out full or hold a tiny runner with a stop in profit to potentially see more. 5190.5 ended up being the afternoon high.

This long setup was a great example of the patience that is required. I sat there waiting with no trade on for more than 69 mimutes waiting fot the setup I wanted, unwilling to compromise. My absolute requirement was that price DID make a new low before I would consider it. I was harping on this for 40 minutes while waiting.