Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit

The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/26

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/26

Some excellent setups for Sunday night and Monday that hopefully aren’t ruined by a large gap.

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NQ finally came down and took out the June low on a continuous, non-back adjusted contract on Friday. This sets up an incredibly important week as we head into August. This past week I outlined reasons why a pop to start the week was likely, with NQ and SMH in particular coming off major support. However, I also suggested that trading lower first and failing would be more bullish than trading higher first. Both turned out correct as we saw a relief rally to begin the week, which then set up arguably the biggest trade of the quarter on NQ. In the plan for Thursday, I expressed my intent to take nothing but shorts until 29400 was bid from above. I further outlined the important of this general area and was looking for an 800 move from this spot. The short setup on Thursday was perfect and resolved for just over 800 handles to Thursday’s low. From Thursday’s plan:

All eyes are on NQ here this week and my expectation is that the trickiest and most complicated scenario is the most likely to occur.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19

NQ has been my primary focus the last few days, and in particular its resolution at this major resistance. I said I expected an 800-handle move from this spot and we got that today. The weekly 29247-29269 (up to 284 for last night and today) formed the bottom of this resistance.

I am extremely objective about price 99.9% of the time but I made my bias known yesterday that I would be short until buyers bid 29400 from above or until we got a liquidation break. High of night was 29282.5 and the selloff began.

We got that liquidation break and NQ resolved 850 handles lower (815 from the bottom of the 29247-29269 where it was time to cover (at least for day trades and for me a fair portion of a swing).

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19

Another wild one today inclusive of the overnight session. Today was a great example of how we need to be prepared to flip bias in an instant. After laying out some of my concerns that yesterday’s apparently bullish action was actually distribution, NQ in particular sold off all night

I had been preparing to continue selling NQ into today. However, at the tail end of the premarket session, we got a classic “Trump Toilet Tweet Tape Torpedo” with a high volume sell into the 28945-28969 level which happened to correspond to roughly a 0.618 retracement of this week’s low to high.

NQ ran 400 handles from that low and ES made it to yesterday’s high on the LBAF. However, ES bulls once again failed to have much luck in the 7550s and NQ stalled in the same area as yesterday. I said last night that I think this range on NQ decides the next 800 handles and I stand by that. I do think we’ll see a ton of “FAFO” around tech earnings, but the ultimate resolution should be significant.

Watch me get grumpy and reconsider my plan for today on that Trump tape bomb into the overnight low in real time

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19

After trading lower early in the overnight session, NQ triggered the exact same long setup from Sunday night which was outlined last night above the paywall.

The bid that came in after 28691-28718 was tagged was merciless. Once again, Friday’s excess was protected and bulls were even more emboldened. At the same time ES triggered a LBAF of yesterday’s RTH low and was dragged (much more slowly) higher along with NQ.

NQ now sits in a major inflection area on intermediate timeframes. What happens from here most likely determines the next 800 handles.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19

The overnight session was very constructive with NQ triggering a long setup relatively early in the session, ultimately resolving for nearly 500 handles

This rally, however, only served to trigger the best short setup of the day on ES. With the weekly plan we were monitoring for a fail or LAAF of 7539-7548 which coming into the day was more safely played as a LAAF of Friday’s 39 high. Given sellers showed their presence premarket, a LAAF of the overnight high offered even tighter risk as an execution option if not slapping the clear rejection above 48 directly.

Bulls were able to take out a prior day high and overlap value higher (more clearly on NQ) and that is important, but for the most part the picture remains unchanged from the weekly plan.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19

As outlined in the weekly plan, we have come to a major decision point on NQ in particular. How this week trades out of OPEX and into earnings will have massive implications for the rest of the year.

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In this past week’s plan I outlined some of the downside risks in spite of an apparent strong close to the week of 7/5. I used the strong close to raise some cash and added some timely hedges on Wednesday (as I had indicated in the weekly plan) just after open which happened to be high of week.

We now find ourselves in an interesting situation with NQ at its range low while ES sits nowhere near its. We have seen absolute record dispersion, and I actually see some interesting dynamics which may be unique at least in the last few years coming out of OPEX.

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If you are looking to join the Discord please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. The daily and weekly plans are posted in the Discord so the Discord option includes Substack content, but a new Substack subscription does not include Discord access.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Trapped: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/5

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Trapped: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/5

The setup for today was to short ES on a look above and fail of 7559-7561. The Asia session was cooperative in playing this out in a reasonably clean manner, which resolved for nearly 100 handles to the overnight low.

The trade was already well underway before the news from premarket triggered a liquidation break straight through multiple levels to the major 7472-7476 level.

Sellers were not able to find any traction lower, but ES still opened on a true gap down. It was honestly one of the hardest true gaps I can recall trading. One very subtle clue, which rarely happens, is even though ES traded mostly above its open and entirely above its 5-minute OR low for the first hour, SPX didn’t trade above its open at all. I also didn’t like the character of the buying.

The NQ short setup worked last night but the Asia session made it quite difficult. Regardless, the liquidation break on the news took NQ into our next two areas of interest below 29269-29238 which had potential to trigger a reclaim.

We got 181 and 161 taken out and 28945-28969 / 29045-29069 reclaimed triggering a rally back to 29269-29328. Like ES, this open was brutal but finally broke to the downside back to 29045-29069 where it was time to cover shorts and at least consider longs. We had some puts from yesterday which were up 200%+ at the low. Outside of some kind of bottom snipe, there wasn’t really a great way to get into that long. It based in a very small way for a short period of time and then was up only. I personally got long at 29049 which at the time was low probability/high reward but is easier to do since I’m short MNQ from 30K+.

While NQ spiked to new high of day into the close, I actually did not like to see that. It looked very trappy to me, and sure enough we saw a 150-handle pullback after the bell on Iran news.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Trapped: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/5

After the rejection at 30069-30100, 29923-29969 was lost and offered and we got the weekly rotation down to 59569-29595 overnight for an absolute monster trade. The 740-769 level was defended from below leading to today’s true gap down which opened right at the 569-595 level and sold hard with no interest above the 5-minute OR high or open. See the rules of trading true gaps from the starter kit if you need a refresher. This got us to the major weekly target of 29269-29328

As of now buyers were able to defend the dip below last week’s low opening the possibility of a look below and fail week. However, ES hilariously has a look ABOVE and fail week in play. Sellers are in control on NQ with far less certainty on ES. Tomorrow will be a big day to see if ES or NQ has been lying.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Trapped: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/5

Some excellent trades today on both ES and NQ as we look for two-way trading in this multi-week balance. ES has been structurally stronger than NQ so shorts were better reserved for NQ rather than ES.

The NQ A+ short setup played out early in the overnight session resolving for 300+ before finding its feet (as the ES long setup triggered) and rallying into the open. From last night’s plan:

It was a bit tricky to execute, but the daily 30007 level capped the overnight action, ultimately triggering the look above and fail of 923-969. As mentioned above, ES triggered its long setup as NQ found low of night just shy of the 650-665 target.

I was a bit more cautious in selling the 923-969 at open which turned out to be both right and wrong as it actually worked another two times into and at the openbut ultimately resolved higher:

We note that indeed the entire range between 923-969 and 30069-30100 warranted caution. Buyers were able to bid 923-969 from above (941.25) to find a final drive into high of day but still as of yet unable to lift 30069-30100.

The ES short (LAAF of 7566-7569) worked overnight before triggering the long setup (inability to get through 7540. The honorable mention 53 put in the cash hours low of day and once the 75-76 daily level flipped to support ES found the weekly 7598-7604.

ES remains structurally stronger, comfortably above its intermediate time frame inflection range from last week while NQ remains at a decision point. With both indices comfortably within a multi-week balance range, two-way trading will continue to be expected

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Trapped: Market Analysis for the Week of 7/5

Both and remain trapped in a large multi-week balance. The ultimate break from this balance is likely to produce a large move. For now, the name of the game is two-way trading until this larger decision is made.

Thursday provided which was undoubtedly the trade of the week. I was looking for shorts in the 30269-30293 range, possibly up to 308-330. The premarket high was 320 which produced a quick 300-handle move (and ultimately nearly 1000), and the cash session high was 30293.5. From the Wednesday night plan for Thursday:

If you missed the trade, don’t worry we have another 1000 handle trade cued up for this week if the market would be so kind as to set it up. Is it a long or a short? See the weekly plan if you missed it.

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The market remains trapped in a massive multi-week balance so two-way trading continues to be expected. Bulls retain control of high time frames as a prior month low has not been taken out. Intermediate time frames are neutral (the above referenced multi-week balance) and short time frame control has flipped back and forth which is fully characteristic of a multi-week balance. Longs are favored when buyers control the short-term trend, and shorts are slightly favored when sellers control the short-term trend. The ultimate break from this balance is likely to produce a large move. Trend traders are better served sitting out on the index and focusing on individual names which are trending (such as our HD long in the Discord). However, for those of us who excel at trading both sides, this range has been an absolute money printer of enormous trades. Understand the market environment and understand your strengths. I personally love balance/range/reversion trading and believe I am successful in preparing subscribers for these situations, but it isn’t for everyone. If you are interested in expanding your skill set then join us, but either way there is no shame in avoiding a market environment that doesn’t suit your trading style. Based on where NQ closed Friday’s ETH session, I am expecting a large move (roughly 369 handles) in either direction from here.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/28

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/28

Yesterday saw NQ close above its key 298891-28923 weekly level, with ES closing just below its 7497-7504 range high. This had bulls positioned well for an upside breakout. We always prepare for all scenarios, but bulls did what they needed to do overnight and at today’s open.

Overnight, NQ saw a LAAF of yesterday’s high which was a short down to 29974 with potential for 932 and maybe the weekly 891-923 for a backtest. Sellers could not even quite tag 932 and it quickly turned into a LBAF of 974 for a long.

Buyers offered no lack of clarity in their intent at the open. It was pretty hard to get into the move if you weren’t already in it, with the pullback to the weekly 30269-30293 offering a nice opportunity to join (2nd green arrow).

ES struggled between the weekly 7497-7504 and daily 7515-7517 level into the open, but buyers made pretty quick work at the open, like NQ offering a nice pullback long at the daily 15-17 level which was right at the overnight high.

Buyers retain control of short-term trend while intermediate timeframes are neutral. It is appropriate to favor longs, while preparing for two-way trading until sellers negate the short-term trend. When and where that occurs will be our focus the next couple of days so we know if it remains correct to remain long biased or if it is appropriate to once again flip.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/28

I was looking for a bear trap early this week, and the trap we got was pretty weak. Regardless, after the strong weekly reopen on the gratuitous Sunday evening “war is over” headline the market rallied all night, then sold off hard in the morning. Once Sellers couldn’t get through ES 7405-7410 (and 29296-29339 NQ) the rally was on leading to completion of the move to ES 7497-7504 and NQ to and through 29891-29923 to the weekly 30047-30069 level.

The opening drive saw a LAAF of 72-76 which resolved back to 7405-7410 as expected. From there we got a V shaped recovery right back to 7472-7476 and once it was taken out, resolution to 7497-7504. Buyers did take out a prior day’s high and did overlap value higher. This doesn’t automatically guarantee the low is in, but it at least positions bulls to confirm as much moving forward this week. It was really a very awkward way to make this move but here we are.

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