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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/7

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/7

I was a bit skeptical of yesterday’s rally into the close, and we saw that manifest a bit today:

On NQ we saw the reactive bid come in on the dip below 28663 overnight. At the case open we got a quick LBAF of 28800-28817 for a couple of nice trade opportunities on the long side. The fun for bulls was over, however, on the LAAF the IB high. Bulls tried to defend 663 multiple times but it ultimately flipped to resistance into the close.

ES was weaker overnight and 7345-7350 was cleanly lost and flipped to resistance. This led to a move to the demand in the 7290-7310 range about which I was skeptical (overnight low 7305.5).

It held overnight, 7345-7350 was reclaimed, and the open saw a quick LBAF of 7345-7350 which triggered a long to 7406-7415. A short of 7406-7415 was the top rated setup and put in high of day.

Once 7345-7350 flipped to resistance bulls were in trouble the rest of the day.

Sellers remain in control of short time frames. In tonight’s plan we’ll discuss what buyers would need to do to negate this, along with additional downside targets should sellers continue to press.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/7

This has been quite the back-and-forth week as was proposed in the weekly plan, the fun may just be getting started with CPI tomorrow. After holding a key downside area on Sunday night, we got the rally into Monday, which then sold off in the afternoon only to rally again overnight. It is pretty rare for liquidation events to resolve in one day and it is difficult to impossible to predict when the second wave will hit. Fortunately, we don’t predict we simply react. Both indices came down to yet another key level at today’s low. Inventory (positioning of traders) was already extremely short when a “Trump Tape Bomb” hit to the sell side. When the market gets that short (longs have puked and short term traders are short) there is bound to be a major relief rally. I would be careful reading too much into it just yet and as always be prepared to react.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 6/7

Friday’s selloff took ES and NQ to an absolutely massive spot that had a very good chance of producing at least a relief rally and “structure repair mission.” After a failed push lower Sunday night. It was easy to be too bearish after Friday and get caught shorting it all the way up, and easy to get too bullish on the rip only to find a fresh wave of sellers right where we should have.

All we did is test the bottom of this range and then come up and test the top of it at today’s high.

The market has yet to make a decision, but today’s profile left behind some clues.

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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be seen here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead

I hope many of you took advantage of and benefited from last week’s plan without a paywall. The “most bearish” scenario set up after ES tagged the primary 7631-7634 target and NQ tagged its primary target of 30700s-30800s.

The bulk of this past week’s volume was put in above 7569-7572. The gap down on Thursday, provided the “first pass” into the area which was expected to be reactive (especially on NQ) and Thursday saw a massive rally. However, last week’s high in the 7610-7613 level was rejected from below into the close. Friday saw a large gap down and go which took out last week’s low in the first 30 minutes. Buyers made an attempt to hold it, but once Friday’s IB low was broken to the downside, indices were in full blown liquidation mode. I think a lot of people were blaming NFP and the change in rate expectations from the Fed, others were blaming the impending IPOs. Neither of these were the primary reason but it certainly provided a perfect storm to trigger the “trap door setup” which I had been hoping to save for the weekly plan. While I’ll get into the primary reason for today’s sell below, what is most important is to understand that this was a liquidation of longs. This was not short sellers who had suddenly grown a pair. Liquidations like this are VERY bullish (not a typo), but they are bullish when they are completed. We’ll discuss the technical locations most likely for this liquidation to terminate, but with liquidations all that really matters is when the unwind is completed. This move is incredibly similar to the move from 10/10/2025 and I had made a copy of the plan from that week without a paywall and it is linked here for your review and future reference. Trap Door / Stacked Boxes

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The FREE weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/31

In the free weekly plan we were expecting NQ to find active buyers in the area between the two weekly levels, 30110-30129 and 30242-30269.

There would be clarity in strength above 242-269 inclusive of a look below and fail (LBAF).

Buyers were incredibly reactive between the two weekly levels and then back above 242-269, triggering a break of the IB high. From there NQ worked up the weekly levels, stalling at the 600-617 level. The last 30 minutes saw some selling and futures bled out a bit after the bell. My thoughts below.

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The overnight session was certainly one of these:

Overnight traded down within a tick of yesterday’s RTH low, held, reclaimed 7581-7584 and the buying party certainly turned on. The 7610-7613 level held the premarket high, triggering a pullback into the open which simply produced a higher low. The “honorable mention” 7592-7596 level held at the cash hours open, 7610-7613 was ultimately cracked and ES ran once again for the 7631-7634 level now leaving a horrifyingly poor high AND low in place. This is generally an indication of weak participants (on both sides). Given the broad bullish context on all timeframes, low participation clearly favors bulls. A shift toward higher participation on the sell side can very quickly change tone, but we’ve yet to see anything of the sort.

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A couple of excellent trade setups on NQ in particular for Sunday night/Monday.

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If you are looking to join the Discord please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. The daily and weekly plans are posted in the Discord so the Discord option includes Substack content, but a new Substack subscription does not include Discord access.

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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be seen here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead

JOIN THE DISCORD for the intro course, weekly and daily plans, real time commentary and trade setups and swing trade alerts.

If you aren’t in the Discord or otherwise don’t have the indicator script it can be found here: PharmD_KS Indicator.

If you are in the Discord please see the TV-Indicator room for the script. It is pinned in that room

Add it to your favorites and follow the instructions (copy/paste daily and weekly levels into the respective sections) and use the converter to SPY/SPX/QQQ if you like.

Bold/Asterisked levels mean stronger and/or more important.

ES Levels/Ranges:

Will add higher if needed

7738-7741*

7716-7719

7696-7699*

7674-7677

7653-7656*

7631-7634

7610-7613

7569-7572* monitor for LBAF

7549-7552*

7515-7519*

7476-7480 Monitor for LBAF

7454-7457* Monitor for LBAF

7398-7403*

See last week’s levels for lower

NQ Levels/Ranges:

Will add higher if needed

31527-31545

31400-31420

31269-31288

31125-31143

31000-31018

30869-30886

30732-30750

30600-30617

30448-30469*

30242-30269* monitor for LBAF

30187-30192

30110-30129*

29848-29869* Monitor for LBAF

29769

29711-29730

29583-29600

29469-29487*

29378-29397* Monitor for LBAF

29101-29127* Monitor for LBAF

See last week’s levels for lower

COMMENTARY:

On both ES and NQ value gapped higher for the month of May and for this past week as the prior two-week balance was broken to the upside. ES struggled with the breakout for a couple of days while NQ held two ETH back tests almost perfectly. There is nothing bearish about this. On both ES and NQ the weekly profile was a double distribution to the upside. There is nothing bearish about this. To end the week we started to see some rotation into software with semis weak at times, but SMH still gapped value higher for the week and sits in a 4-day balance. I mentioned during the week that I expected this rotation and that it would likely mean brief periods of weakness in NQ, but that until/unless there is significant technical damage the dips will be bought. We’ll certainly need to keep an eye on SMH this week as a downside break of this 4-day balance (this past week’s range) would shift short time frames bearish on SMH and rotation into software and other names may or may not be sufficient to fully offset this weakness in NQ due to market cap weighting. There isn’t much more to say about the big picture. As I’ve stated for weeks, intermediate time frames don’t shift bearish until/unless there is a multi-week balance break to the downside. Last week took out the prior week’s low to potentially bring the weekly timeframe into balance, but we were prepared for the bullish engulfing week on QQQ and compound 2-week engulf on SPY. Short time frames can only shift bearish with a downside break of a multi-day balance.

PRICE:

ES:

The ES double distribution profile isn’t the cleanest to me. I’m going to use 7549-7552 and 7569-7572 as the most informative levels for next week. I’ll probably keep this past week’s 7590-7593 level as a daily level for Monday but I don’t see it as a durable weekly level. I’ve already established that there is nothing bearish. As always, this perhaps ironically means spending more time on the downside scenario as trading higher speaks for itself. We were ready for the “down then up” scenario the week of 5/17 through our extensive preparation and I will continue to have us prepared for the more difficult scenarios. Everyone (except stubborn perma bears perhaps) is a genius in an “up only” regime

Trading Higher:

While taking out Friday’s low would bring the daily timeframe into balance, I generally believe there is clarity in strength above 7569-7572. If lost it would be a key reclaim and we’ll be on watch for a quick LBAF or a reclaim later on after initial weakness.

Taking out and sustaining above this past week’s high (which sits in this past week’s 7610-7613 level) speaks for itself. The 7631-7634 level remains an upside target for me from the two-week balance, with a stretch target of 7738-7741 not unreasonable. That is well beyond the weekly expected move, but this market has been anything but “expected.” Regardless, we’ll be long biased above this past week’s high at least until a multi-day balance forms. The untested upside levels have been very good, but they are there as a general guide and certainly aren’t for randomly shorting without a damn good reason.

Trading Lower:

For all of the below, if we trade lower first this week then I tend to expect buyers to be more active than if we trade higher first, fail above this past week’s high and then trade lower. That said, buyers will ultimately step in on any weakness until sellers do meaningful technical damage which to me doesn’t take place until at least this past week’s low is taken out with continuation.

If 7569-7572 is lost (monitor for LBAF) it will be a key reclaim all week. The area between 7569-7572 and 7549-7552 should be controlled by buyers but there are some aspects of Thursday’s trend day structure that leave me unconvinced. There is no clarity within that range, but buyers should generally be favored.

The first pass below 7549-7552, like other weekly and daily plans, has me on watch for responsive buyers. Again, on ES I am less convinced than I am for NQ but I still won’t let my guard down on the short side on the first pass. Wednesday’s high sits at 47, the prior 2-week balance high sits at 40, and Thursday’s trend day left single prints running from 37-51. That is quite a bit to get through. As long as 49-52 and 69-72 are reclaimed, it will look like a trap. The more volume that builds above 7569-7572 before a downside break, the more likely it is that sellers may defend a lower high following a reactive bid from 49-52 or lower.

To me this can be summarized to suggest: Trading lower first early in the week is the least bearish, consolidating above 69-72 early in the week but without popping this past week’s high is slightly more bearish (but not meaningfully), and failing above this past week’s high and putting in volume above 7569-7572 before a break lower is the most bearish (but still not terribly so) outcome.

Persistent weakness below 7549-7552 is needed (again, careful that first past) to find a rotation down to 7515-7519 which includes this past week’s RTH low. If sellers take out this past week’s low and don’t have it bullish engulf in their faces, then the weekly timeframe will be in balance. The risk of a bullish engulfing week (or 2-week compound engulf like we just saw) would increase dramatically back above 7569-7572 in the even that 7515 is taken out first.

Meaningful traction below this past week’s low (lol I know) would have ES in a short time frame downtrend. Once again, it is reasonable to assume that this would be in search of a daily higher low. The profile from the week of 5/17 is relatively thin down to about 7454-7457 which I would expect to be supportive. If not, then I would consider it to be a bit of a red flag.

NQ:

NQ was a cleaner double distribution to the upside as compared to ES. I’ll use 30242-30269 and 30110-30129 (keeping both from this past week as is) as the most informative levels for the week. I mentioned above the possibility that we continue to see some rotation away from semis, but unless the SMH 4-day balance breaks to the downside with continuation it will remain well-bid. We’ve been long NOW in the Discord from the 88s ahead of this recent chase back into software. There’s no telling how long or how aggressive this rotation will be, but I think select names in software ultimately have a lot of room higher.

Trading Higher:

There is clarity in strength above 30242-30269 inclusive of a LBAF. Friday’s RTH low was 270 so NQ was a bit more cooperative than ES. This past week’s 369-386 level was extremely reactive until Friday abused it a bit, but plan to have it as a daily level to start the week.

Friday’s high acted a bit like an excess high above 448-469 which is part of why I’ve used it as a weekly level. It would also serve as a trappy back test of this past week’s high from above if we trade higher. Sustaining above 448-469 makes a run for Friday’s high and above there we simply continue “wen moon, wen lambo” mode until buyers properly exhaust out. Remember, short sellers don’t cause swing highs at an all-time high to form. It is buyers being done buying. My ultimate upside target from last week was the 30700s-30800s and I just didn’t think we would get there in one week. NQ cooperated in closing right at my last weekly level.

Trading Lower:

I have more confidence in NQ buyers defending the area between 110-129 and 242-269 and decided to leave 187-192 as a weekly level in the range. We had used it as a daily level for Friday and it remains untested. NQ had single prints on Thursday running 192-238. Those singles were tested on Thursday night producing our long setup, but they remain untested during cash hours. I tend to like to at least see the ETH lowq (216.5) taken out, but anywhere 187-238 has potential to be reactive. I’ll add one caveat to the above regarding my confidence in buyers. If SMH breaks its 4-day balance to the downside with continuation then I will be proceeding with more caution on NQ. The analysis still holds, but to remain fully long biased I would prefer to see SMH LBAF its 4-day balance at worst.

If buyers don’t control the range between 110-129 to 242-269 I still would expect 110-129 to be supportive at least on first touch (inclusive of a LBAF). Additionally, unlike ES, NQ left behind some significant demand on Thursday (call it 29990-30056. This has me even more cautious on the short side than for ES on a first pass below 110-129. It is risky to plan to bid this area directly as a long but I would plan to take profit on a short for sure and depending on what the daily session is telling us in the Discord I may look for a long knowing it must reclaim 110-129 and ultimately 242-269.

Persistent weakness below 110-129 after a test down to 29980-29990 or so opens additional weakness. This past week’s 29980-30000 was highly reactive on first touch and ended up a clear support/resistance, but given this past week’s VPOC was left there I plan to use something in that range as a daily level instead of a weekly level. A rotation to 29848-29869 (I kept the same weekly level from this past week but an argument can be made for up to the 880s which we used intraweek) is in the cards if 110-129 flips to firm resistance absent a reactive bid in the area mentioned above.

As long as 848-869 holds (or is later reclaimed with or without taking this past week’s low) a rotation right back to 30110-30129 is reasonable to expect.

I still need to see sellers find traction below 29711-29730 for me to give them any credit. Until then we’ll monitor for a LBAF of this past week’s low again with 848-869 (probably up to 880 in this scenario) being the first major reclaim. Sellers would be under pressure to defend 110-129 from below, and would arguably be fully deceased back above 242-269.

Like for ES (though perhaps to a lesser extent) the profile from the week of 5/17 is pretty thin down to about 29378-29397 but I left two weekly levels in between. I see 378-397 (I’ll probably have 317-338 as a daily level if needed) as being the strongest and most critical to hold.

I won’t cover any further as any discussion of downside has proven to be excessive planning outside of the week of the 17th. After this past week’s profile it would be quite a change in character to even see below 30110-30129 NQ and 7549-7552 outside of a quick trap. The daily plans will be absolutely critical if this plays out.

Video Supplement: Week of May 31 2026

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Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit

The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/24

After yesterday’s liquidation break (on NQ in particular) we saw a second wave liquidation during the Asia session. We had clearly defined edges based on volume profiles and the plan was to fade the failed breaks of those edges. For NQ these edges were 30110-30129 and effectively yesterday’s 29877 low.

The early overnight session saw a failed push through 30110-30129 ultimately resolving for 30+ handles to the overnight low which held the prior 2-week balance high nearly perfectly. This triggered the LBAF of yesterday’s low which offered two opportunities overnight into premarket. Sellers defended 30110-30129 at the open which made for a nice trade to the short side but buyers stuck a higher low and were finally able to rip through 110-129 with continuation. From last night’s plan:

I was personally less interested in shorts today given the overnight action but the short at the open worked for nearly 200 handles in a straight line.

ES was effectively the same. The market is framing higher on all timeframes. We have still not met my minimum requirement for triggering a meaningful pullback. That will end, but for now bulls are still in control.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/24

After stalling premarket at the last weekly level resistance, NQ sold hard into and at the open. I had been feeling pretty bearish NQ premarket and hoped to see some rotation away from it and into YM type names. This was healthy to me, whereas the action premarket was not.

The dip buy areas on NQ were 29937 and a sweep of 29886. The early 937 hold triggered a 160 handle rally and the sweep of 886 put in low of day. It also aligned with a LBAF of the IB low which made it an even juicier setup.

ES failed at the same spot premarket as it had on Sunday night and also sold into an at the open. However, sellers did little more than trigger a LBAF of yesterday’s low for which we were on watch given the weekly level and an important 15/16 spot sitting just below it. Today’s low as 7515.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/24

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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be seen here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead

In last week’s plan we prepared for the scenario that sellers would bring the weekly timeframe into balance by taking out the prior week low (7363.25). The question from there, however, is whether that would lead to bearish continuation or a bear trap (at least in the short term).

The reclaim of 7398-7403 (up to perhaps 7409) would be the key reclaim for the week if 7363.25 were taken out.

For NQ the key reclaim was 29069-29090

The Tuesday cash session took out ES 7363.25 and NQ 28742 and these key reclaims were achieved on Wednesday:

Once the LBAF week was active our favored trades were longs, looking for at least 7482-7485 on ES and 29469-29487 on NQ with potential for the prior week high. NQ, ES, and SPX came quite close with QQQ making a slight new high. We now have a long weekend of potential headlines into a shortened week next week. The major trade for next week will be box trades as both major indices sit in a very clean box.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/17

Today was a pretty choppy and awkward day in the morning but ultimately did what it was supposed to do. After failing the 7455-7458 range ES futures pulled back hard right at the 6pm open. It held the demand near the 7410 range, reclaimed 7422-7424, and made a run back to and through 7455-7458.

The cash session opened RIGHT at 7422-7424 and held the same demand (and therefore the overnight low) multiple times with 22-24 acting completely irrelevant. The LBAF of the IB low is what finally gave buyers the strength to flip 22-24 to firm support to complete the move back to 7455-7458.

The next target was effectively 76-80 with the weekly 7482-7485 level just above.

NQ was a similar story and for the sewcond day in a row I wasn’t interested in being short below a key level. There was simply too much for sellers to get through.

The 210-234 level was immediately traded through overnight, but the 114-135 level held, triggered a reclaim of 210-234 and both the 383-397 and 469-487 targets were met overnight (464.5 overnight high anyway).

Like for ES, the 210-234 level was traded through a number of times during the cash session, but the 114-135 once again held, 210-234 was finally bid on a pullback from above, and the targets were met.

Every bullish sequence for the week has been completed except one. Will bulls take profit tomorrow or make a run for completion of the last sequence?

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/17

The picture from the weekly plan summed up our preparation for the week:

We were prepared to take last week’s low, very likely see a back test higher, and then apply the decision analysis from the weekly plan to decide bear trap vs bearish continuation. In the meantime, amazing day trades continue to set up and give us opportunities to balloon runners into swings if we so choose.

For today, with the LBAF of last week’s low active, longs were certainly rated more highly. The action overnight was amazing and offered multiple opportunities on both sides. For NQ my assessment was that 28800-28817 was an effective “lower edge.” While below 28859-28880 could have NQ at a bit of risk, my bias was looking for longs on a hold of 800-817 which might trigger a reclaim of 28859-28880. From the commentary and trade setup:

The overnight low held 800-817 (797.25 low), and quickly reclaimed and bid 859-880 for the rest of the night, ultimately resolving for 580 handles to today’s high of today in the 29383-29397 range

ES was a similar picture, with the LBAF of 7360 producing low of night and protecting the LBAF week. I personally preferred the setup on NQ but it worked quite well.

Yesterday’s low was protected twice overnight, producing the LBAF of 7360 and last week’s low (which was already in effect from yesterday’s low). Once 7380 was reclaimed, 7389-7391 and the weekly 7398-7403 came quickly. Once through yesterday’s high it made a run for Monday’s high.

The question we now ask is whether or not the low is in, or if this was just the back test after bringing the weekly timeframe into balance.

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The weekly post for and should be reviewed prior to this. It can be found here Market Analysis for the Week of 5/17

Today sellers were able to take out last week’s low. The weekly plan included some extended scenario analysis to aid us in determining if this is a bear trap or if bearish continuation is likely. We have NVDA earnings after the bell and it seems like every earnings day for the last 3 years has been ultra trappy so bias will need to remain in check until we have resolution. Tonight’s plan builds on some of the scenario analysis from the weekly plan to help us to identify which side is being trapped tomorrow.

For today, once again money was available to be made on both sides. Our short setup happened to play out first, but there were plenty of longs to be had as well. I liked the short on NQ better than the short on ES personally:

After the early overnight look above and fail (LAAF) of 29114-29135 it was resistance all day.

Last week’s low (28742 down there) was taken out, and we see that sellers covered quite a bit before leaning back in at 29114-29135.

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